A series of interventions by physicians, dissatisfied with the “optimizations” and a decrease in real wages, suggestive of the decay of the “nuclear electorate”.
Putin, in his “may decrees” of seven years ago promised the employees of the social structures of the salary not below the average in the regions, and for a while local officials tried to fulfill the order. Now, however, teachers and especially doctors complain of changes in the structure of charges that resulted in a reduction of the amounts that state employees ultimately receive. And it is precisely this stratum is considered to be “support mode”. How will affect their already obvious growing irritation from declining revenues on national politics?
Boris Kagarlitsky, Director of the Institute of globalization and social movements, candidate of political Sciences:
“”May decrees” were performed very peculiar. Initially, almost all regions reported increase in wages, but in fact people were forced to work more for slightly big money. Why is it that, like, the increase in total revenues from the same doctors and teachers there. But if you count by hours of work, labour cost, on the contrary, it turned out the drop in hourly earnings. It had to do with the fact that many people simply dismissed. Reduced the number and the smaller number of people were assigned the same salary Fund.
It is now clear that the system is unable to cope with the workload. The main problem is the overexploitation of people possessing a certain skill level. But this level must be maintained, and the people are zero, they are insanely tired. Still overwhelmed with the bureaucratic work — in fact unnecessary and is already reaching to the point of bullying. Naturally, this causes discontent.
Another problem is that the entire burden of performance “may decrees” descended on the regions. Of course, they receive from the Federal budget a certain amount of money, but this is often insufficient, and money in recent years has become less.
How this will affect the overall socio-political climate in the country? Of course, bad.
People can endure some local degradation, but now they confuse the two things. First, do not see any lumen. Not that “now several years will be worse, but then again it would be better”. Everyone understands that will only get worse. Or, at least, will not be better. Therefore, it is important not even the fact that has less money, and the total depressive dynamics. And the second point: the overall disappointment with the government after the pension reform.
So, of course, the result will be very poor, and it will affect the political situation. But, on the other hand, the government is keeping everything under control, so any immediate effects should be expected. Let’s see how the election in 2020.”
Maxim Zharov, the political scientist, the sociologist:
““May decrees” were intended to stabilize the socio-economic situation, and wage growth planned in accordance with these decrees, was intended to help the stabilization. But wages do not actually grow — including because of the rather high inflation. Although it is stated officially that she is around 2%, prices in stores are increasing. Wages also reacts to the changes of the ruble. Finally, there are very serious flaws in the payroll system. In the same “may decrees”, in my opinion, there are significant flaws in the formula. Unfortunately, they were not eliminated, and discontent is growing.
For the social focus of the protest answer is usually the left-wing forces. They always used the subject of low wages and continue to use it. While it does not give them special dividends. Although if the Communists will get more active absorption of social protest, hold rallies on these topics, especially in the regions, they may be able to ride this wave.
As for the liberal forces, including the non-system opposition, then it is a problem of unattractive salaries. In principle, the opposition leaders — the people rich enough, and that they personally are not interested. Accordingly, I do not see yet no reason to say that Alexei Navalny somehow will try to lead the social protest.”
Anna Ochkina, head of the Center for social analysis IGSO, sociologist, candidate of philosophical Sciences:
“The last 30 years we have a regime change is not because people are rebelling against them, but because the population will not protect them.
Amazing thing was in 1991: took and lifted a huge state. And almost nobody came to the defense of the Soviet Union. Not opposed, among others, doctors and teachers. The same thing happened with the regime of Yeltsin. And now it all comes down to the fact that people are massively disappointed in the power.
Meanwhile the government can not deal with their own internal crisis and neglect of the officials to the main part of the population will lead to the fact that the ruling elite will not find support at the crucial moment. These are the main potential socio-political consequences of the processes occurring in the country today.
In this stratum of educated people is still not particularly politically active, she has no habits of self-organization. Nearly hundred-year history she played the role of “environment”. Not the subject who understands himself to be, namely an environment where there are processes, there is one wave after another. There is fatigue, there is sabotage of all sorts of bureaucratic reforms, rolled the protests of doctors in the regions and their small trade Union “Action” got almost national importance. But this layer is too heterogeneous, large and dependent on the state, to become independent holistic entity. This is the environment background, well, resource, walked out and will come out different people.”
Marina Litvinovich, political scientist, human rights activist:
“In addition to salaries, there are many other indicators, especially important for people in these professions. For example, very often it is the tyrants, bosses or ridiculous rules that need to be done, or millions of papers to fill out. These factors affect people significantly more than the income.
If a person is not respected at work, if the boss gives you bad instructions, it may cause dissatisfaction more often than low wages.
People in these professions are quite active. They communicate with other citizens, know very well how they live. So if they start to protest, it will be a serious signal to the authorities. And it is possible that they will start to Express their dissatisfaction.
As we know, the unions don’t work well in Russia, so people can go into politics and protest. They understand that in their situation and publicity is important. The protest may take place in different forms — ranging from statements in the form of texts or rollers and ending with the demonstrations and rallies, layoffs and strikes”.